This is the case of the debt of some States

As a motorcycle launched at high speed, the global economy seems to have an imperturbable stability. Of course, its driver does not rise in dropping the handlebars, for the good reason that it has no driver. But it cash potholes one after the other without deviate from its trajectory. Tripling of oil prices, financial crisis in Thailand, US interest rates multiplied by five, Middle East war, collapse of a Fund lost $ 6 billion... Previously, one of these events was enough to send the world into the decor or at least do so zigzag. This is no longer the case. In 2007, global GDP growth should still approach 5, slightly less than in 2006, according to the IMF or the World Bank to converging estimates. This is the fourth year high speed of the never-seen in a generation.

We entered on the highway of growth, this optimal path that trying to define the economists there is a quarter of a century It is too early to say. But there are still many certainties in the beginning of 2007. First, everything is faster. Internet is already at version 2.0. The idols of the day before yesterday, like Netscape, have disappeared. Those of yesterday, like Yahoo!, paddle. Those of today, such as Google, are trying to preserve their future by purchasing the generation next (YouTube). Same acceleration at the head of the business, all sectors combined: patterns remain less long in the position. Any skid strategic, stock or personal is fatal. It seems unlikely that the new, as Christian Streiff Peugeot or soon Christophe de Margerie in Total, remain, like their predecessors, more than a decade at the top! Finally, speed WINS macroeconomics. With China between 10 and the India year, the regions who lose ground to take the risk of being marginalized more quickly. This is the case of the European Union, which did well 10 growth, but in five years, while the world is 25!

Second certainty: today, big business and high finance lead the race. The giants of the industry, American, European, but also Indian and Chinese, invest anywhere in the world and reorganise their processes with formidable efficiency. They derive profits unprecedented, with a revenue sharing which them has never been as favourable (except France). Upstream, the bankers develop bold financial packages, suggest constantly new juicy reconciliations in commissions, circulate the capital with a fluidity without precedent. When a company is in difficulty, funds the out of the stock market to retyping from stock requirements. It is the time of the financial hypercapitalisme.

Third certainty: a sea of liquidity is also unprecedented, fueling this ferment. Long-term interest rates are exceptionally low. Created by recycling of capital accumulated by the Asia and the oil countries, money sweeping the financial markets. Prices of assets shares, real estate, commodities, works of art rise to risk sometimes break the machine. Here is the end of certainty, with the appearance of the spots of oil likely to skid the world motorcycle. Will the liquidity remain as abundant One day, the Chinese will decrease their savings, which will reduce their production of liquidity. The partial closure of the American tap, through the higher rates of interest in the short term by the Fed, has hampered the American housing market. If the market turns, a key driver of activity will stop in the United States. The same risk exists across the Atlantic, in Spain, in United Kingdom, in France. Other excess can lead to the same drying. This is the case of the debt of some States. And acquisitions of businesses financed on credit: reimbursement depends on the ability to generate profits. Or asset prices seem to go faster than this ability.

In a world where economics leads the game, does the policy find ways to act In 2007, the question will arise of course in France with the presidential election. The last decade, the French rulers especially showed their inability to understand the world of today (35 hours, industrial policy...). The question is also in Europe. The Union, which will celebrate its 50th anniversary this year, is nailed to the bed by a constitutional lumbago. After opening the markets (energy, finance in 2007), it will no longer know where restart. And at the global level, all major institutions (UN, IMF and WTO) are down. After Kyoto is in the fog. The debate on inequality rises everywhere, including in the United States. Since the 1970s, the policy released the powers of the economic, from Washington to Beijing, Paris and Brasilia. But the economic alone cannot lead the world. It is perhaps the greatest challenge of this year 2007.