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Princess Diana she only appears in topical filmsForcing to manage specific ranges of an appointmentThere was until then the dismissal or resignationIt is worrying that the prices are so highWithout it there is no agreement she addedAn ideal steel breakthrough converging channels Cap skullWhich are prior to the European directiveWell seen in the first quarter of the year 2000No question however adhere to the single antiphon of the means A year ago any bac 45 was a good positionIt often tax the stock market to be a casino game. In any case, the probability of winning is very low. Less than 10 of active individual investors are able to generate a performance positive, net of the cost of transactions for a minimum period of five months. This figure is derived from a study by two professors, Philippe Bernard, Co-Director of the master of engineering economic and financial of Dauphine, and Thami Kabbaj, academic and former trader (1), in partnership with II. Two economists have analyzed the performance of nearly 600 registrants in the competition organised by this Internet site, on the actions, between March 2007 and January 2009.
On the 505 traders in activity for more than five months, only 39 record of positive performance (i.e. 7,72), the duration of their participation in this game, i.e. between five to twenty months. "It has no marked difference between the market upward proportion of winners and the market rally," said Thami Kabbaj. These results were surprising: studies on the population of individuals 'day-traders", in the United States and Asia, have shown that only a minority realizes gains over several months. "Research on Day Trading in Taiwan, where the practice is widespread, between 1995 and 1999, found that less than 20 of active investors made money (profits net of transaction costs) over periods of six months (2).
Several factors
In addition to the low number of "winners", the two professors show that the cumulative performance of the operators is lower than that of the market: the contest participants displayed a decline of 60,17, in almost two years, while the SBF 250 index lost 49,78. "This heavy underperformance can be explained in part by the large number of traders who ruin on several occasions," notes Thami Kabbaj. Almost half (42) people have lost at least once their initial capital to a minimum of 1,000 euros.
Expert, these results are attributable to several factors. Brokerage fees (8.97 euros for a transaction up to 7,500 euros in stock Direct, the partner of this competition, with possible discount) contribute to graft the overall performance: to achieve the balance on a purchase-sale, must be gain, at a minimum, greater than about 18 euros. Then and most importantly, there are "psychological bias." Reward high attributed to the victors (first prize is 10,000 euros) encourages participants to take more risks. Most operators use effects of leverage (up to 3 for the total sample). "When the potential gain is greater than the losses, operators would endanger more easily."
This illustrates the asymmetry of behaviour: research shows that in a situation of loss, the trader is willing to lose more to return to balance, then in the case of gains, he wants to, on the contrary, secure the money. In the study of two economists, the average gain is less than the loss, with a ratio of 0.85. In addition, there are cognitive bias, which are operators tend to believe that point trends will continue. "When the market is bullish, it is human to think that this will continue," said Thami Kabbaj. "2008 has been tough for investors who have had difficulty to the change in trend,"said Fabien Vrignon, Director of marketing of Cortal Consors." That individuals are reluctant to position themselves for sale on the stock. "He organized for clients of emotion management seminars, with a psychologist.
"In the end, investors who come to achieve good performance are those who keep a certain distance," completing Thami Kabbaj. Analysis shared by Jerome Favier, responsible for Trading Places, which brings together independent traders: "To win in the stock market in the long term, look to have regular earnings, rather than the big shots." Stay disciplined, mastering its leverage effect.
